Common Weaknesses in Applying Qualitative Futures Methods
Presentation Overview
Positivists vs. Futurists: design differences
Positivists vs. Futurists: researchers’ roles
Alternative possible futures...
…alternative possible futures
Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable
PPT Slide
Strategic Planning and Foresight
Categories of data required by common foresight tools...
The context of applied futures research
Identifying change...
Environmental Scanning
Trends, emerging issues… and wild cards.
Environmental Scanning: a basic approach….
Environmental Scanning: a more advanced structure…
Common futures research tools… identifying/monitoring change.
…looking for impacts
Emerging issues of change…
…emerging issues of change, cont’d.
Futures Wheels: Workshop Instructions
Common futures research tools… critiquing impacts of change.
Existing images of alternative futures: sources
Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes.
Effective scenarios… provoke ideas!
Basic Scenario Building: FAR/Futures Table
Basic Scenario Building: SRI Scenario Parameter Matrix
Basic Scenario Building: Schwartz/GBN Approach
Basic Scenario Building: Schwartz/GBN Approach, cont’d.
Schwartz/GBN Example: Scenario Matrix for ”Global Agro-Seeds, Inc.”
Basic scenario building, Manoa Approach:
Manoa Approach Example: Three trends for 2030
Common futures research tools… scenario building.
Strategic Design Trade-offs: Scenario Building as an Example
Effective visions….inspire action!
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, Organizational Capacity for Vision Creation
Common futures research tools… visioning.
Strategic Design Trade-offs: Visioning as an Example
Common Research Flaws
Common Research Flaws, cont’d.
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Home Page: http://www.infinitefutures.com/index.shtml
Other information: Keywords: futures studies, environmental scanning, scenario building, visioning, foresight, change management